Institute of Modern Russia

Panelists:

Thomas Graham, Managing Director, Kissinger Associates

Paul Saunders, Executive Director, Center for the National Interest

David J. Kramer, Senior Director for Human Rights and Democracy, The McCain Institute for International Leadership

Alina Polyakova, Deputy Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center; Senior Fellow, Future Europe Initiative, Atlantic Council

Moderator:

Ambassador Kurt Volker, Executive Director, The McCain Institute for International Leadership

Note: Thomas Graham and Paul Saunders presented reasons the United States should re-engage Russia, while David Kramer and Alina Polyakova argued the opposite view.

Volker: 

• Two years ago we had a debate on U.S.-Russia relations, and the question was: is it time for containment? Today the question is: is it time for re-engagement?

Graham: 

• Russia may be a declining power, but it’s still a power—one with a strong military, great diplomatic corps, and advanced scientific community.
• Today Russia opposes the U.S. in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East; it challenges the U.S-led order, but resolving numerous international issues would be difficult without Russia.
• The U.S. cannot contain or isolate Russia, nor can it build a partnership. But there are several things that can be done:
• reopen channels of communication to avoid dangerous misunderstandings;
• tone down the rhetoric;
• put a trusted senior official in charge of Russia policy;
• think of Russia in a global context.
• When U.S. and Russian interests align, the two countries can achieve successful cooperation: fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan; building a global partnership to fight nuclear terrorism; securing the Iran deal; signing the START treaty.
• The problem with Russia is not just Putin personally; removing him from power will not solve the problem.
• The problem is that the U.S. has a poor policy with regards to Russia, whose current aggressive behavior should not come as a surprise: “They told us their red lines, they told us they’d react, so now they have and we are not prepared.”
• At the moment, the U.S. needs to remove geopolitical competition with Russia, diffuse tensions, and stop piling on sanctions, so that both sides can work on long-term issues. The real challenge is to “understand where we want to be in five years.”
• The U.S. needs to know how to structure its Russia policy and to develop a holistic approach; it cannot solve the current issues (Ukraine, Syria, et al.) with Moscow separately, because all of these issues are interconnected in Russia.
• The U.S. needs to understand its own interests and define clearly what it wants and how to achieve it. Then it can act and be prepared for the consequences.

Saunders:

• The U.S. has no illusions about Russia—it is an authoritarian country, but the U.S. still works with authoritarian governments when it thinks there is no other choice to protect U.S. interests.
• The U.S. has to accept the Russia that exists now and deal with it.
• There is the issue of mutual mistrust between America and Russia, but the U.S. needs to have a better understanding of Russia’s interests and build a relationship based on that information.
• The U.S. created the “gray zone” in its relationship when it promised NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine.
• Ukraine and Georgia have the right to ask to join NATO, but it’s the right of the United States to decide whether we want these countries to be partners or not.
• The U.S. needs to develop and establish a diplomatic frame through which Russia’s issues can be addressed.
• At the moment, there are no good options left with Russia.

Kramer: 

• Previous U.S. administrations (George W. Bush, Barack Obama) both made attempts to “reset” U.S. relations with Russia, but they have failed. And when you look at the common denominator, it is Vladimir Putin.
• Before the U.S. attempts to re-engage with Russia, it has to take a close look at the current regime. Putin has no regard for rule of law or human rights. He came to power and used brutal methods to strengthen his power; built a massive kleptocracy with corruption exporting to the West; and launched multiple attacks on other countries.
• Putin’s interests do not align with Russia’s interests; therefore, the U.S. does not have a Russia problem—it has a Putin regime problem.
• The problem is not a lack of communication between the U.S. and Russia: “How many times has [U.S. Secretary John] Kerry met with [his Russian counterpart Sergei] Lavrov over the last year?” The problem is in the Kremlin.
• The U.S. has to support Russia’s neighbors, like Ukraine, and get rid of the “gray zone.” “The message should be clear: Russia, get out of Ukraine.”
• In Syria, both the U.S. and Russia deserve blame for the situation, but for different reasons: the U.S. for not acting, and Russia for deliberately targeting civilians.
• The notion that the West is piling up sanctions against Russia is wrong: for instance, “The U.S. hasn’t imposed a single sanction on Russia for failing the Minsk agreement.”
• Yes, there are no good options left with Russia at the moment.

Polyakova: 

• Russia has consistently shown that it is not trustworthy—it’s a pattern in the Kremlin’s behavior. All of its actions and statements amount to a game of smoke and mirrors. And it’s not the U.S. that needs to tone down the rhetoric—it’s Russia.
• The U.S. needs a tougher policy toward Russia—a mix of revamping sanctions, investigating Russia’s corruption, and standing up to human rights abuses. “Russia needs to clean up its own act.”
• The assertion that the U.S. creates “gray zones” is wrong, because in reality it’s Russia that is creating them.
• It is also wrong to place the blame for deterioration of the bilateral relationship on the U.S., which has been offering concrete policy options and political resolutions in Ukraine and Syria, all of which Russia turned down.
• Currently, the U.S. is sending the wrong message to Russia. “We need to take a stronger leadership [position] globally, and Putin will come to the negotiations table.”
• No one is calling for isolating Russia, but “Containment worked before, and it can work again.”

The full video of the event is available below.