In this week’s Western media highlights, Rajan Menon argues in Foreign Affairs that the Kremlin’s incursions into Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria should not come as a surprise, as they were driven by geopolitical interests. In Foreign Policy, Tatia Lemondjava explains the logic behind Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov’s recent announcement that he will resign in April. Meanwhile, in the Russian media, Sergei Medvedev discusses why the national media barely covered two tragedies that shook the Runet (the Russian Internet)—the mining disaster in Vorkuta and the murder of a four-year-old in Moscow.
Russian president Vladimir Putin and defense minister Sergei Shoigu during a meeting on the Russian armed forces activities in Syria at the National Defense Management Center in Moscow. Photo: Aleksey Nikolskyi / Planet Pix via ZUMA Wire / TASS
From the West
Putin’s Rational Choices
Rajan Menon, Foreign Affairs
International affairs expert Rajan Menon puts forward a realist explanation of Russia’s incursions into Syria, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine, arguing that these actions merely demonstrate the Kremlin’s willingness to protect geopolitical interests abroad. Menon believes that realist-inspired thinking is not exclusive to Putin; he points out that former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev once railed against NATO expansion, that Yeltsin lambasted NATO for bombing Serbia and Kosovo, and that Dmitry Medvedev claimed neighboring countries as part of Russia’s sphere of influence. While Putin’s choice to insert Russia into foreign conflicts may be rational, Menon believes that the wars in Syria, Crimea, and Ukraine will prove unsustainable (and unaffordable) for Russia in the long run.
The Pragmatists Turn to Geopolitics
Lilia Shevtsova, American Interest
In her latest addition to her series of essays on Russia and the West, Lilia Shevtsova criticizes realist, geopolitically focused explanations of Russia’s aggression abroad. She argues against the notion that NATO and EU expansion pushed Russia to annex Crimea and invade eastern Ukraine, noting that Moscow never expressed concern when the EU invited Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign association agreements, so why the concern over Kiev? Instead, Shevtsova believes that Putin has pursued adventurism abroad to bolster his regime’s popular support at home. From Shevtsova’s point of view, Putin is the problem—not the West’s insensitivity toward Russia’s geopolitical interests.
The Chechen Gambit
Tatia Lemondzhava, Foreign Policy
Independent analyst Tatia Lemondzhava explains Ramzan Kadyrov’s decision to vacate his position as president of Chechnya. She speculates that Kadyrov hopes to receive an announcement of continued support from the Kremlin, which would effectively strengthen his legitimacy as a leader. Although Kadyrov has proven quite difficult for the Kremlin to control, Lemondzhava believes that it cannot afford to get rid of him. Kadyrov’s iron-fist style of rule has brought order to Chechnya, making him invaluable to the Putin regime’s popularity. Kadyrov is also quite popular with the republic’s Sunni population, which is significant considering Moscow’s current propping up of the Shia coalition in Syria; the last thing Putin wants is another Islamist insurrection within Russia’s borders. The result, Lemondzhava writes, is that Kadyrov remains indispensable to the Putin regime, and despite his recent announcement, he will likely remain in office for the foreseeable future.
From Russia
The Mythology of Greatness: How Imperialism Has Been Resurrected in Russia
Alexander Rubtsov, RBC.ru
RBC columnist Alexander Rubtsov discusses the history of imperialism in the Soviet Union and contemporary Russia, and its effect on public consciousness. Today, he notes, imperialism is inspired by state propaganda and the public’s desire to have Russia recover from its post-Soviet humiliation and “rise from its knees.” Given the Putin regime’s recent aggression on the world stage, as well as the Kremlin’s encouragement of jingoism at home, Rubtsov’s article is a highly relevant commentary on Russia’s current political climate.
Mikhail Dmitriev: The Society of Consumption Is Becoming a Society of Survival
Georgy Neyaskin, Slon.ru
In this interview with Slon Magazine, Mikhail Dmitriev discusses the current state of the Russian economy. So far, the economic crisis has driven down consumption and investment and has caused salaries to fall 10%; at the same time, companies that export raw and intermediate goods have actually seen increased revenues as a result of the devaluation of the ruble. According to Dmitriev, if oil prices continue to hover at or below $35 a barrel, Russia’s economy will continue to suffer. He believes that growth in oil prices to $45 or $50 a barrel by the end of the year might put a stop to the recession and the decline in wages. Overall, Dmitriev argues that the government has done a good job of dealing with the crisis but admits that its capabilities will remain severely limited as long as oil prices are low.
Fatal Amnesia: Why We Don’t Want to Talk about the Tragedies in Vorkuta and Moscow
Sergei Medvedev, Forbes Russia
In this opinion piece for Forbes Russia, Sergei Medvedev describes how Russian state media react to national, versus international, crises. Oftentimes, Russian media sensationalizes international conflicts (such as the war in Ukraine or Syria) to make the outside world seem dangerous and chaotic compared to Russia. Meanwhile, domestic problems are played down or ignored altogether—just consider the media’s coverage of the Beslan terrorist attacks, the sunken Kursk submarine, the Russian airliner downed over Egypt, and, most recently, the mining disaster in Vorkuta and the gruesome murder of a four-year-old in Moscow. Such selective media coverage, Medvedev writes, will result in a “deathly amnesia” throughout Russian society.
This week's roundup was compiled by Daniel Frey.
