Institute of Modern Russia

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Nowhere to retreat: Vladimir Putin is trapped in Ukraine

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22 March 2022

Michael Wasiura

By nearly every available measure, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia. Yet even as military losses mount and economic sanctions reduce the living standards of ordinary Russians, there is little reason to believe that the Kremlin will change course. By ordering his tanks to cross the border into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin may have made a catastrophic error, but it is an error that cannot be corrected so long as the current regime in Moscow remains in power.

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War and gas

Is Russia provoking tensions to boost gas prices?

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14 February 2022

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Is the surge in natural gas prices in Europe this winter related to the escalation in Ukraine following Putin’s ultimatum to the West and threat of war? According to economist Vyacheslav Inozemtzev, director of the Center for Research on Post-Industrial Societies (Moscow), the answer to this question is not as straightforward as it might appear.

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Smoke and mirrors: Western misperceptions of Russia in Ukraine

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11 February 2022

Ofer Fridman, Vera Michlin-Shapir

The consensus among Western politicians and experts is that the Kremlin is gearing up for war, which could be prevented by either deterrence or negotiations. However, recent research shows that policymaking discourse in both Russia and the West is “full of mutual misperceptions, mirror imaging, and attribution of non-existent intentions and capabilities.” One of the main reasons for possible misinterpretation of the Kremlin’s intentions in Ukraine is rooted in differences between the U.S. and Russian strategic cultures.

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Opinions

How the Kremlin is preparing for war

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09 February 2022

Michael Wasiura

Since March 2021, when the first reports of a military buildup at the Russia-Ukraine border appeared, the Kremlin has continued taking steps to shape the battlespace, both in physical reality and in the information sphere. While Western observers seem to view a Russian invasion as almost inevitable, Ukrainian officials call for a toning down of the incendiary rhetoric. In his op-ed for IMR, Michael Wasiura, a U.S. political analyst based in Moscow, explains why there are reasons to believe that the Kremlin is preparing for war.

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Opinions

Sergei Davidis: “The human rights violations in Russia is fraught with instability in the West”

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12 January 2022

Diana Fishman

ВIn late December, Russian courts ruled to liquidate International Memorial and its human rights center, allegedly due to a systematic violation of the law on “foreign agents.” The IMR spoke with member of the Memorial Human Rights Center council and head of the political prisoners program Sergei Davidis about why this decision has been made right now, what will happen to the Russian human rights movement, and how the West should respond to repressions within Russia.

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• Longreads
• 30 Years of the USSR's Dissolution

Vladimir Gelman: “Russia’s leadership is increasingly facing problems of succession and lack of perspective”

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17 October 2021

Olga Khvostunova

December 26, 2021, will mark 30 years since the Soviet Union was officially dissolved. As such, the Institute of Modern Russia has launched a series of interviews with experts to discuss the post-Soviet decades and identify key issues of the Russian transition and their impact on Russia’s political system and society today. In the fourth installment of the series, political scientist Vladimir Gelman spoke about the reasons for the failure of democratic reforms in Russia, the emergence of a “negative equilibrium,” the propaganda of a fictional ideal of the “good” Soviet Union, and the country’s democratic potential.

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“They keep attempting to extract testimony in exchange for my life”

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11 October 2021

Vera Chelishcheva

Ten years ago, at the age of 39, Vasily Aleksanyan, a Yukos lawyer, left this world; his tragic fate haunts many people to this day. For the cold-blooded torture he was subjected to while in detention is impossible to erase from one’s memory.

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Opinions

• Longreads
• 30 Years of the USSR's Dissolution

Sergei Guriev: “We may already be seeing Russia’s return to the repressive dictatorship of the 20th century”

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05 August 2021

Olga Khvostunova

December 26, 2021, will mark 30 years since the Soviet Union was officially dissolved. As such, the Institute of Modern Russia is launching a series of interviews with experts to discuss the post-Soviet decades, identify the key issues of the Russian transition, and their impact on Russia's political system and society today. In the third installment of the series, professor of the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) and economist Sergei Guriev discusses the Putin regime’s economic problems, the political reasons for the stagnation, and the future of Russia’s information autocracy.

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Opinions

What Putin forgot to mention in his latest article

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28 July 2021

Ekaterina Mishina

Vladimir Putin’s article “On the Historic Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, which was published on the Kremlin’s website on July 12, triggered expert discussions not just in Russia, but far beyond the country as well. Free University professor Ekaterina Mishina also read the infamous article and highlighted a number of crucial factors of the Ukrainian constitutional development, which clearly escaped the Russian president’s attention.

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Putin’s article as a manifesto against Ukraine’s sovereignty

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22 July 2021

Mykola Vorobiov

On July 12, an article by Vladimir Putin titled “On the historic unity of Russians and Ukrainians” was published on the Kremlin’s website. According to Mykola Vorobiov, Ukrainian journalist and Johns Hopkins University research scholar, this article not only highlights Putin’s territorial claims to Ukraine and neighboring countries, but also presents a serious challenge to the entire Western world.