Institute of Modern Russia

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How the Kremlin changes the terms of engagement with regional elites

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12 May 2021

András Tóth-Czifra

As highly important September elections in Russia draw nearer, the Kremlin is trying to shore up its positions, using the usual tacks—from vague promises of additional spending to growing crackdowns on opposition. The late Putinism’s “offers” to Russian elites—especially those outside the highest echelons and tightest circles of power—are also changing. A closer look at recent developments reveals some awkward contradictions.

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It’s Time to End the Bacchanalia of Lies

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11 May 2021

Vladislav Inozemtsev

In late April, Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service published new COVID-related mortality data. The figure of 249,700 deaths unexpectedly compromised the previous official tally of 110,000 deaths reported by the Russian government to the WHO. Analysis of the new data shows that the country’s epidemiological situation is far from favorable despite official claims: the real number of new cases is clearly growing.

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Is Moscow Playing a Double Game in Iran?

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05 May 2021

Vera Michlin-Shapir

A recently leaked interview with Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has potentially offered damning evidence of Russia’s role in the region—as a disruptor conspiring with Iran’s most radical forces to undermine the nuclear deal. While Zarif’s comments should be taken with a grain of salt, his take on Russia should be given serious consideration.

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How the West reacted to Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly

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04 May 2021

Institute of Modern Russia

On April 21, Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly. Instead of making a big announcement (like in his 2014 Crimea speech) as was predicted by many experts against the backdrop of Russian military buildup at Ukraine’s border, the Russian president mainly drew upon domestic and social affairs. IMR has rounded up how Western observers reacted to the speech and its lack of foreign policy bombshells.

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How Russian authorities use selective law enforcement

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27 April 2021

Igor Slabykh

It has been repeatedly observed both in Russia and beyond that one of the key principles of the current regime’s modus operandi is “for friends, everything; for others, the law.” The already dire situation with the country’s adherence to the rule of law is further exacerbated by arbitrary law enforcement. As numerous cases have shown over the course of the last two decades, the government tends to use the law selectively to punish critics and protect loyalists.

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Back to the Russian Path

What Vladimir Putin really said in his address to the Federal Assembly

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23 April 2021

Vladislav Inozemtsev

On April 21, Vladimir Putin delivered his 17th address to the Federal Assembly, devoting it mostly to the issues of overcoming poverty and economic development. However, an analysis of the measures he laid out once again confirms the fact that the president is not interested in economic growth if it requires structural and institutional reforms, more freedom, or an adjusted foreign policy.

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Escalation in Donbass: cold war or hot peace?

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20 April 2021

Mykola Vorobiov

Tensions are growing again at the Ukraine-Russia border and in the zone of armed conflict in the Donbass. According to some estimates, about 110,000 Russian troops could be pulled to the border as part of Russia’s “symmetrical response” to the largest NATO exercises in years. Some observers expect further escalation, even a Russian invasion. While the Kremlin’s saber-rattling is likely to test the new Biden administration, which has recently declared its support for Ukraine, the risk of a Russian “big war” with Ukraine is quite real.

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Putin’s dangerous flirting with nationalism

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16 April 2021

Dmitry Shlapentokh

Russian nationalism has deeps roots and manifests itself through various political brands—often with anti-government undertones. As nationalist sentiment gained momentum in the early 2000s, Vladimir Putin, a cautious and calculating politician, decided to adopt the trappings of the nationalist agenda without actually following through with relevant policies. So far, it has worked in undermining his opposition, but, as history has shown, by playing with a nationalistic and bellicose rhetoric, Putin risks losing the game, which could then follow its own logic with unpredictable results.

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A Single Year of Voting

How the electoral season is shaping up in Russia’s regions

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06 April 2021

András Tóth-Czifra

United Russia’s electoral rating has sunk to levels unseen since 2011, forecasting a difficult electoral season for the Kremlin. But unlike ten years ago when Moscow was front and center of political theater, regions will likely play a significant role in determining the mood before and after the vote. Two recent events in regional politics contain lessons for the authorities and the opposition as well.

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Levada Center polls offer a bird’s-eye view of what Russians think right now

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02 April 2021

Institute of Modern Russia

Following a series of high-profile political events in Russia—Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia, his imprisonment, and unprecedented protests in his support—IMR prepared a brief overview of the Levada Center’s latest public opinion polls. Despite the brutality of the regime’s crackdown on the dissent, the polls show that little seems to have changed for Putin and the Kremlin. A new survey of Russians’ and Americans’ views of each other also reveals gaps in self-perception and narrow areas of possible cooperation.