Institute of Modern Russia

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Crime and Exposure

What the investigation into Navalny’s poisoning means for the Putin regime

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23 December 2020

Olga Khvostunova

The past week in Russian politics unraveled like a three-part drama. On December 14, the investigation into the poisoning of Alexei Navalny was released, showing that the FSB was behind the attempt on his life. On December 17, Vladimir Putin admitted the surveillance of the oppositionist, but denied the involvement of the special services. On December 21, the recording of Navalny’s conversation with an FSB officer who had unwittingly revealed the details of the poisoning operation was made public, leaving no doubt about the veracity of the investigation. While Navalny’s exposés have dealt a severe blow to the Putin regime, the question of their impact on Russian society remains open..

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Russia Expands its Foothold in Africa

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11 December 2020

Ksenia Svetlova

On December 8, the Russian government officially announced its agreement with Sudan to build a modern port and establish a navy base for at least 25 years. The new port, along with Russia’s base in the Syrian city of Tartus, will strengthen its military presence in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

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How Russia’s environmental issues increase risks for the Kremlin

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02 December 2020

András Tóth-Czifra

Environmental issues have led to unusually resilient protest movements in several Russian regions over the past years. According to the latest data, air pollution in the country has increased by three times this year compared to 2019—a record high over the last 16 years. What do these developments indicate and what do they mean for Russian politics?

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Why Russia’s development institutions are being reformed

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26 November 2020

Vladislav Inozemtsev

On November 23, the Russian government launched a large-scale reform of development institutions with a declared goal of optimization for the sake of implementing the National Projects. Discussions about the inefficiency of these organizations have long become commonplace, but the parameters of the reform indicate that its real goals are the redistribution of financial flows, the destruction of the past decade’s symbols, and the political strengthening of Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

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More limits proposed on freedom of assembly in Russia

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24 November 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

On November 17, 2020, two draft laws were submitted for consideration to the State Duma by Dmitry Vyatkin, a member of the United Russia party. The bills will amend existing legislation regulating protests in Russia, adding new requirements for obtaining a permit for public assemblies, restricting where protest can take place, and labeling more public actions—specifically single-person pickets and flash mobs—as forms of public assembly. Taken together, these changes will further restrict the already limited ways in which Russians can protest.

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Will Russia Survive as a State?

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13 November 2020

Dmitry Shlapentokh

Recent protests in the Russian Far East region of Khabarovsk reignited the discussions about separatist tendencies in the country and the tense relations between Moscow and the regions. The highly centralized government system constantly breeds local grievances and fuels resentment, with local identities in some regions becoming stronger than national or ethnic ones. The centrifugal forces in some parts of Russia are indeed strong, but scenarios of Russian disintegration become plausible only if Moscow’s grip on power is weakened.

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Why Russia Should Pay Attention to Kamala Harris

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27 October 2020

Dante Matero

If Joe Biden wins this November election, his VP Kamala Harris will likely take on a substantial foreign policy role in his administration. While she lacks international experience, Harris’s background and political views are good policy predictors. When it comes to Russia, she is expected to be tough on human rights violations and а staunch advocate for arms control.

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Russia’s pre-existing conditions

How will the regions weather the second COVID-19 wave?

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23 October 2020

András Tóth-Czifra

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has reached Russia. While Moscow suffered the most in the first wave, almost two-thirds of the new cases are now registered in the regions. The situation may get worse, since the problems accumulated during the spring pandemic have not been resolved. Unless the Kremlin thoroughly rethinks its fiscal policy, the second wave may hit cash-starved regions even harder than the first.

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In Russia, Elections Are About More Than Just Winning

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16 October 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

Despite fraud and significant administrative barriers to participation for most candidates, elections continue to be a crucial battleground in Russia between the regime and the opposition. Anti-Kremlin forces have achieved some successes in unseating United Russia candidates, but in the long term, elections may undermine authoritarianism by engaging voters, not by ousting regime incumbents.

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Poisonous Maneuvers

Crucial facts about the politics of Navalny’s poisoning

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07 October 2020

Olga Khvostunova

The attempt on the life of opposition leader Alexei Navalny has become one of the central political events in Russia, but most Russians do not believe that the oppositionist was deliberately poisoned. Despite criticism from Western leaders, the Kremlin refuses to open a criminal investigation and continues to manipulate the facts. IMR’s analysis shows that the accusations made against the Russian state about the illegal use of chemical weapons are valid, but evidence is insufficient. International sanctions are imminent, as the West seeks to punish the Putin regime, but they will likely hurt less than the destruction of Russia’s special relations with Germany.