Analysis - Institute of Modern Russia

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World without Russia

Details: Analysis

World without Russia

Details: 17 March 2022; Vladislav Inozemtsev

The war unleashed by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine will have grave consequences for Russia—political, economic, cultural. However, contrary to the Kremlin’s thinking, Russia’s importance on the world stage, which is being rapidly reconsidered today, is in fact not so great. Modern Russia is beginning to fade into the past.

A big war in Ukraine: The Kremlin’s goals and consequences for world politics

Details: Analysis

A big war in Ukraine: The Kremlin’s goals and consequences for world politics

Details: 16 March 2022; Mykola Vorobiov

On February 24, the Russian army crossed the Ukrainian border in several directions simultaneously, thus beginning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin employed most of its armed forces—around 130,000 people, according to various estimates—that had accumulated along the Ukrainian border over the past four months.

Russian Jews: a complicated narrative

Details: Analysis

Russian Jews: a complicated narrative

Details: 08 March 2022; Dmitry Shlapentokh

Last October former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote an article focusing on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, an ethnic Jew. Medvedev mocked and insulted him, implying that Zelensky is a treacherous Jew and a disgusting person. The article was criticized for anti-Semitism and attempts at undermining Zelensky’s political status in Ukraine, but it also reflects complicated attitudes toward Jews in the Soviet Union and Russia.

From victor to aggressor: A metamorphosis

Details: Analysis

From victor to aggressor: A metamorphosis

Details: 03 March 2022; Ekaterina Mishina

On February 24, Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine under the pretenses of “demilitarization” and “denazification” of the country. Legal scholar and professor at the Free University Ekaterina Mishina analyzes the legal aspects of the war and looks at the cultural ramifications of the actions of the Russian Federation, which, by President Putin’s will, has turned from a victor nation into an aggressor nation.

Kremlin propaganda goes to war

Details: Analysis

Kremlin propaganda goes to war

Details: 01 March 2022; Michael Wasiura

For weeks leading up to February 24, as Russian military equipment moved into position around Ukraine’s borders and as U.S. government spokespersons warned of an “imminent” attack, foreign and domestic Russia analysts did not expect that an actual war was about to begin. Many pointed to the lack of a “rally around the flag” propaganda campaign as evidence that the Kremlin was not preparing the public for a potentially generation-defining conflict. This expectation was a mistake. The Kremlin propaganda’s goal was not to rally support, but to suppress opposition. At least for now, this campaign has been a success.

Is the Kremlin ready to reject the Minsk Accords?

Details: Analysis

Is the Kremlin ready to reject the Minsk Accords?

Details: 21 February 2022; Mykola Vorobiov

Following the three-month escalation along the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin must resort to unpopular decisions—such as recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics—in order to save face both before its own citizens and the collective West. Despite the colossal pressure, Kyiv is refusing to abide by the Minsk Accords on Moscow’s terms, and that means that the Kremlin’s blackmail may result in real military action. However, further escalation is unlikely in the upcoming few months: most likely, the Kremlin will continue destabilizing the situation inside Ukraine.

How to establish a state ideology incognito

Details: Analysis

How to establish a state ideology incognito

Details: 06 February 2022; Ekaterina Mishina

In January, a draft document titled “Foundations of state policy on the preservation and strengthening of Russia’s traditional spiritual and moral values” (to be confirmed by presidential decree) was released for public discussion. Legal scholar Ekaterina Mishina analyzes the document and notes that its authors attempt to establish a state ideology in Russia by manipulating terminology in the hope that their efforts go unnoticed.

How to be a successful region in Russia: the case of Tatarstan

Details: Analysis

How to be a successful region in Russia: the case of Tatarstan

Details: 01 February 2022; András Tóth-Czifra

According to official data, in 2021, the number of Russia’s so-called “donor” regions—that is, not requiring subsidies from the state—stood at 12 out of 83, which is roughly half the number there was in 2006. Among all Russian regions, Tatarstan has always been among the leaders and enjoyed special status in its relationship with Moscow. But, in recent years, with the Kremlin’s push for centralization, the Tatar success story has been gradually fading away.

Russia’s negotiations with the U.S., NATO, and the OSCE: “The window of diplomacy” remains open, for now

Details: Analysis

Russia’s negotiations with the U.S., NATO, and the OSCE: “The window of diplomacy” remains open, for now

Details: 21 January 2022; Mykola Vorobiov

Russia’s negotiations on security guarantees with the U.S., NATO, and the OSCE took place on January 10-13, in Europe. After three rounds of talks, the parties’ positions remained unchanged—disagreement on key issues persists, and if they are not resolved, no significant results can be expected. Yet, at this point, the very fact that the negotiations took place and did not lead to outright failure could be a sign of progress.

How Kremlin propaganda distorts reality inside Russia

Details: Analysis

How Kremlin propaganda distorts reality inside Russia

Details: 19 January 2022; Michael Wasiura

In recent weeks, the Kremlin has staged an elaborate diplomatic circus—from mid-December, when the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published its proposals for a new security architecture in Europe, through mid-January, when they were rejected by representatives of the United States and NATO. The abortive negotiations, however, can be seen as a success for Moscow: the West’s refusal to discuss the Kremlin’s ultimatum helped further propaganda messages at home and prepare TV audiences to accept Vladimir Putin’s next policy moves.

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