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New Russian Identity Makes Way into the Constitution

Details: Analysis

New Russian Identity Makes Way into the Constitution

Details: 26 June 2020; Dmitry Shlapentokh

June 25 marked the first day of the constitutional plebiscite in Russia, which will last until July 1. Apart from the keenly discussed amendments to the Russian constitution that will allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power until at least 2036, a less noticed, but still crucial change has been introduced—codifying the status of Russian as the language of a state-forming nation.

Why Putin Needs a “Nationwide Vote”

Details: Analysis

Why Putin Needs a “Nationwide Vote”

Details: 16 June 2020; Yana Gorokhovskaia

Before the COVID-19 pandemic swept across Russia, the Kremlin was planning to hold a referendum on constitutional reforms that would allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power until 2036. The vote will now take place in late June. The move signals that Putin remains invested in the legitimacy of popular approval, and the best possible outcome of the vote is likely to be produced now.

Lessons in division: is it a good idea to merge Russian regions?

Details: Analysis

Lessons in division: is it a good idea to merge Russian regions?

Details: 03 June 2020; András Tóth-Czifra

An attempted merger of the Arkhangelsk Region and the Nenets Autonomous District in Russia’s north has reignited debates about territorial reforms in the country. An examination of previous attempts in 2003-2008 shows that the government has not learned its lesson, which threatens to elevate the risks in regional politics.

Why the Kremlin Is Not Giving Up Assad

Details: Analysis

Why the Kremlin Is Not Giving Up Assad

Details: 14 May 2020; Ksenia Svetlova

A survey produced by an obscure pro-Kremlin website recently sparked global debate about the Kremlin’s potentially abandoning Syrian President Bashar Assad, a long-time Russian ally in the Middle East. While Moscow is indeed increasingly unhappy with Assad, there is little indication that Vladimir Putin has changed his game in the region.

Is Putin’s Popularity Really Declining?

Details: Analysis

Is Putin’s Popularity Really Declining?

Details: 13 May 2020; Yana Gorokhovskaia

Last week, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating dropped to 59 percent—its lowest ever level. Some observers attributed this decline to Putin’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus crisis. But Yana Gorokhovskaia argues that when it comes to approval ratings, perception of the president’s performance matters more than facts.

The Malaise of the Russian Regions

Details: Analysis

The Malaise of the Russian Regions

Details: 04 May 2020; András Tóth-Czifra

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Russia hard, with Moscow emerging as the epicenter and regions expected to reach peak numbers in the coming weeks. From the onset of the crisis, Vladimir Putin has delegated full responsibility for its management to regional governments in what might look like a sudden break with his centralized approach. However, regions have not been given real power, but rather left to their own devices with little guidance from the Kremlin.

How Belarus Maneuvers between Russia and the West

Details: Analysis

How Belarus Maneuvers between Russia and the West

Details: 30 April 2020; Dmitry Shlapentokh

Recently, Belarus emerged on the US international agenda as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk to meet President Alexander Lukashenko in what was the first such high profile encounter between the two countries in 26 years. The visit alarmed Moscow, which has long been nursing a plan to absorb Belarus as part of the Union State. Minsk’s latest feud with the Kremlin showcases Lukashenko’s ability to successfully manipulate geopolitical differences between Russia and the West, and to extract surprising concessions from its significantly more powerful neighbor.

What Would a Biden Presidency Mean for Russia?

Details: Analysis

What Would a Biden Presidency Mean for Russia?

Details: 22 April 2020; Yana Gorokhovskaia

Former Vice President Joseph Biden has recently emerged as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee who will face Donald Trump in November. Even though the outcome of the 2020 presidential election could not be more unclear, it is time to ask a question: what would a Biden presidency mean for US-Russia relations?

Details: Analysis

Oil Boomerang

Details: 15 April 2020; Olga Khvostunova

Last weekend, OPEC+ members struck a historic deal on a record cut of oil production to stabilize prices. However, the positive effects of the deal are offset by the slowing global economy amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts believe that the agreement was reached too late as a result of the Kremlin’s short-sighted decision to wage an oil price war against the United States.

How COVID-19 Showcases Putin’s Crisis-Management Style

Details: Analysis

How COVID-19 Showcases Putin’s Crisis-Management Style

Details: 14 April 2020; Anna Williams

As of April 15, Russia has counted almost twenty-five thousand coronavirus cases, with the official death toll reaching 198 people. The country has virtually been under quarantine for three weeks, and its healthcare system is increasingly under stress. Amidst this national crisis, in a classic feat of his crisis-management style, Vladimir Putin has stayed largely out of sight, deferring responsibility for tackling COVID-19 to regional leaders.

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