In this week’s Western highlights, David Sanger in The New York Times details the U.S. administration policy on Russia and Hillary Clinton’s “hawkish” stance, which is unusual for a Democratic candidate. And in its editorial, The Economist discusses what the West can do about the Kremlin’s aggression. In the Russian media, experts weighed on the speaking practices of Russian officials, the upcoming crisis that may hit Russia’s economy, and a surprising promotion for Vitaly Mutko, the Russian sports minister named among those responsible for the country’s doping scandal.
According to The New York Times, Vladimir Putin has a grudge against Hillary Clinton to match the one she has against him. Photo: PA Images / TASS
From the West
The Hawk on Russia Policy? Hillary Clinton, Not Donald Trump
David Sanger, The New York Times
As the U.S. presidential campaigns begin to draw to a close, the issue of each candidate’s stance towards Russia is becoming increasingly pressing. David E. Sanger, chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times, writes that Hillary Clinton’s commentary on her Russia policy from the final presidential debate, if realized, would signify “the most contentious relationship with Russia of any president in more than three decades.” “Hawkish” is the word that is most often attributed to the Republican stance on Russia, but in this twisted campaign Donald Trump chose a different path, assuring that his relationship with Russian would be “wonderful.” Putin’s aggressive decision to wage a new Cold War and sponsor cyber attacks on the DNC server and email accounts of top U.S. officials have forced the White House to consider retaliation. According to NYT sources, the U.S. may engage in “attacks inside Russia that could expose corruption among the leadership and embarrass Mr. Putin.”
Putin's Dangerous Games in the Baltic
By Paul Wood, The Spectator
The question nagging Western experts in recent months is whether Vladimir Putin is really crazy enough to target the Baltic region militarily. Such speculation often finds its way into the media in the West, and this week in The Spectator Paul Wood looks to the evidence to see whether the Russian president is a genuine threat to the Baltic states, or whether it’s just a bluff. Wood describes a growing anxiety in Lithuania, provoked by memories of the Soviet occupation which was conducted “without a shot fired.” After the Crimean annexation in 2014, such comparisons sound alarmingly familiar. That Putin may use the large Russian minorities as a pretext for further interference in the Baltic states is a fear shared by both Sweden and Finland, who, in response to extensive Russian military exercises, have been considering joining NATO. Putin knows the reality of this gamble, but he is also aware that war would be a disaster. Thus, are his actions mere posturing? Wood claims that if Putin can play by Nixon’s “madman theory” of “scaring a potential enemy into thinking you might just go to war,” then he can maintain leverage over any negotiations with the West.
The Threat from Russia
Editorial, The Economist
This week’s The Economist deals with a problem seemingly facing every Western leader at the moment: how to contain Putin’s Russia? As the U.S. finds itself caught up in domestic turmoil, it is reluctant to define and respond to the threat that Vladimir Putin poses to the international order. Despite Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling, The Economist suggests that it is “no more than bluster”—such belligerence is a sign of chronic weakness, not strength. With Russia’s shrinking population and declining economy, Putin is trying to “offset vulnerability at home with aggression abroad.” The West should acknowledge its partial responsibility for the current disorder and focus on a strategic approach vis-a-vis Putin. First, the U.S. must continue to engage in dialogue with Putin, however dispiriting the process is, to avert the danger of miscalculation. Second, the new U.S. president has to reaffirm NATO’s commitment to Article 5, whereby an attack on one member entails collective retaliation. Finally, the West “should be united and firm,” as Russia doesn’t even pretend to offer an alternative ideology; its only goal is to discredit Western liberal values and create division so the West loses faith in its strength.
From Russia
Patriotism On an Especially Large Scale
Alexander Rubtsov, Vedomosti
Political scientist Alexander Rubtsov discussed the speech practices of Russian officials, observing the noticeable trend for “doubletalk” among “nomenklatura vulgarians.”. Asking why “the esthetics of the [Russian rock] band Leningrad,” known for its explicit lyrics, are in vogue, Rubtsov suggests that such public discourse sends two “oppositely directed, but synchronized signals”: one is for the crowd (“I’m one of you”), the other is for the higher authorities (“I admire your skills and learn from them”). Other facets of this trend include plagiarized dissertations by officials, poor grammar, “graphorrhea,” and willful manipulation of historical facts. The Kremlin’s highest criterion of truth should be “the country’s interests,” but Rubtsov argues that this is “an extremely shifty ideological construct.” A byproduct of this approach, he continues, is the need “to rewrite history nonstop,” generating new historical myths. It “resembles an accumulation of ideological resources for major repairs of [the country’s] historical failure to keep the nation from sinking,” concludes Rubtsov.
Premonition of a Crisis: What the Global Economic Statistics Tell Us
Vladislav Inozemtsev, RBC
Director of the Center for Post-Industrial Studies Vladislav Inozemtsev looks into the latest outlooks for the Russian economy that appear more upbeat than usual, but cautions against such optimism. His view is that the coming years will inevitably see a new dip of global recession, while “Russia remains vulnerable to external shocks.” Inozemtsev points to a number of telling signs: a bubble in the low-yield bonds market; a sluggish M&A market; falling commodity prices; exhausted growth options in IT and communications—the main drivers of global GDP of late; global trade lagging world GDP growth for the first time in a century (1.7 percent vs. 2.2 percent, respectively). Given the painful blow dealt to the Russian economy by the “global perturbations” of the last two crises (1997-1998 and 2008-2009), the country should not give in to today’s false optimism, and pay close attention to any change in the global economic environment.
Vitaly Mutko: The End of A Career
Maxim Artemyev, Forbes.ru
Historian and journalist Maxim Artemyev comments on Vitaly Mutko’s recent appointment as Russia’s new deputy prime minister, arguing that despite the look of it, the career of the former minister of sports is actually on the wane. Artemyev details Mutko’s biography, explaining the latter’s rapid rise in the bureaucracy ranks as a consequence of his time in the St. Petersburg mayoral office under Anatoly Sobchak in the early 1990s, when he met and established close connections with Vladimir Putin. The years that Mutko later spent as the president of the soccer club Zenith played a crucial role in his becoming minister of sports. After moving to Moscow, Mutko “took up a specific position in the Russian establishment; it was allowed to [publicly] criticize him and mock his bad English,” writes the author, defining his role as “a junior member of the ruling class.” Artemyev believes that Mutko is primarily responsible for Russia’s embarrassing doping scandal, which sealed his fate. Still, the author notes that Mutko is not the worst manager there is, as he proved to be indispensable and able to play by the Kremlin’s rules. As a result, his exit was presented publicly as a promotion to the “somewhat decorative” position of deputy prime minister for sports, youth affairs, and tourism.
Nathan Andrews helped compile this week's roundup.
