On December 16, the Russian market suffered one of its worst financial crashes, known as Black Tuesday. In the wake of an emergency move by the Russian Central Bank to raise its benchmark interest rate to 17 percent, Russia’s currency plunged unexpectedly to 80 rubles to the dollar and 100 rubles to the euro. According to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, in the face of these new challenges, the Russian government is proving both powerless and inept, while its inertness threatens to bring the country to the brink of chaos.
2014 was full of dramatic developments and unexpected turn of events. Some of them, such as the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, were hard to predict. Others, like Western sanctions, Russia’s expulsion from the G8, and the economic recession, had been ripening for a long time. Here, IMR recounts this year’s key events, month by month.
For his efforts to maintain a dialogue with Vladimir Putin, French media has compared France’s president François Hollande with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Elena Servettaz explains why this analogy is misguided.
Vladimir Putin’s public approval rating reached 80 percent in March 2014 and has remained at this abnormally high level for almost a year, despite deterioration of the country’s economic and social situation. Levada Center sociologist Denis Volkov explains the underlying reasons for this phenomenal degree of support for the Russian president.
Last week, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev spoke at a televised interview to five Russian TV channels, during which he announced that his cabinet will step up efforts to lessen the government’s grip on the country’s economic policy. According to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, despite these early signs of liberalization, the weakening role of Russia’s Prime Minister may threaten Putin’s regime, as the Russian ruble continues its free fall.
On December 18, Vladimir Putin gave his annual end-of-year press conference, summarizing the events of the past twelve months. But during this three-hour talk, he said nothing new. According to Olga Khvostunova, editor-in-chief of imrussia.org, this lack of originality means that the Kremlin has neither a concrete plan nor a clear view for how the country will emerge from the current crisis.
December 11 marked the twentieth anniversary of the First Chechen War, which largely defined modern Russia’s path of development. According to writer Alexander Podrabinek, that war was caused by the same factor that led to today’s Ukrainian conflict: the conviction of those raised by the Communist nomenklatura and the KGB that laws and legislation are nothing but toys for weaklings.
On December 3, a draft law entitled “On Measures to Protect the National Economy and to Limit Activities of Legal Entities and Citizens of Aggressor States in the Russian Federation” was submitted to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. IMR legal expert Ekaterina Mishina believes that if this law is passed, the consequences for Russia could be disastrous.
On December 11–12, the Tauride Palace in St. Petersburg hosted the annual Tauride Readings, an international academic conference on parliamentary history. Among the presenters at the forum was IMR senior advisor Vladimir Kara-Murza.
On December 1, during his state visit to Turkey, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would cancel the construction of the ambitious South Stream pipeline. According to Donald Jensen, resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, this decision does not mean an end to Moscow’s search for ways to transport natural gas to Europe while bypassing Ukraine.
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