Institute of Modern Russia

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With or Without Lukashenko, Belarus Will Change

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11 August 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

The post-election protests gripping Belarus now are part of an established cycle of rigged elections and street mobilization spanning twenty years. President Alexander Lukashenko may survive this challenge: last night, his key opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was forced to leave the country. But her campaign captured the public’s desire for change that will likely bring about the end of the regime.

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How Putin’s Constitutional Amendments Affect the Judiciary

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04 August 2020

Ekaterina Mishina

Amendments to the Russian Constitution that came into force a month ago, introduced unprecedented changes to the country’s Basic Law—unseen since its adoption almost 27 years ago. Both legal practitioners and scholars agree that constitutional rights and freedoms of the Russian people are now in jeopardy.

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How the Putin Regime Perceives US Protests

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29 July 2020

Dmitry Shlapentokh

As the protests over racial injustice and police brutality continue in the United States, the Kremlin is closely watching, but seemingly remains unfazed. The reason for this calm is that the imagery of chaos and violence coming from America validates one of Vladimir Putin’s core messages: liberal ideas lead to disorder, while a strong hand guarantees stability.

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The arrest of Sergei Furgal showcases the hollowness of the Kremlin’s party system

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21 July 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

On July 20, Vladimir Putin finally dismissed Sergei Furgal, governor of Russia’s Far Eastern region of Khabarovsk Krai, who had been earlier arrested on murder charges. His replacement was also named—fellow LDPR member Mikhail Degtyarev. Furgal’s arrest on July 9 sparked massive protests in Khabarovsk that have continued for over 10 days. While arrests of politicians have become routine in Russia, the scale of the unrest in Khabarovsk highlights the growing tension between Moscow and the regions, as well as the artificial nature of the party system.

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“Sovereign Virus”: Fake News as the Kremlin’s Crisis Management Tool

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16 July 2020

Gregory Asmolov

As the coronavirus pandemic rages on in Russia, the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office reported that the amount of false information online has increased tenfold. At the same time, according to human rights activists, the government’s efforts to fight fakes undermine freedom of speech. Indeed, recent studies show that fake news has become one of the Kremlin’s latest tools of population control and domination in the online space.

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How Paul Whelan Fell Victim to Hostage Diplomacy

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15 July 2020

Dante Matero

In mid-June, a Moscow court sentenced the former US Marine Paul Whelan to 16 years in a maximum-security prison colony on charges of espionage. The harsh verdict, in what many observers see as a sham trial, marked another low point in US-Russia relations. More importantly, it highlighted a worrisome trend—the Kremlin’s willingness to take US citizens hostage and use them as bargaining chips in its geopolitical game.

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Something is rotten in the state of Russia

How waste management became a problem for the government

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14 July 2020

András Tóth-Czifra

In January 2019 Russia embarked on a significant reform of waste management, an increasingly visible and emotive issue that has led to protests in several regions in recent years. Eighteen months later it seems that the reform, instead of solving this issue, is highlighting some chronic policymaking problems.

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US reaction to “Talibangate” shows effectiveness of Kremlin’s influence campaigns

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07 July 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

Lacking a superpower’s resources, the Kremlin has tapped into its Soviet toolkit of active measures in pursuit of geopolitical strength. While influence campaigns stress-test democracies and disrupt political discourse around the world, the US—with its deep political schisms—remains particularly vulnerable to their damaging effects.

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New Russian Identity Makes Way into the Constitution

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26 June 2020

Dmitry Shlapentokh

June 25 marked the first day of the constitutional plebiscite in Russia, which will last until July 1. Apart from the keenly discussed amendments to the Russian constitution that will allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power until at least 2036, a less noticed, but still crucial change has been introduced—codifying the status of Russian as the language of a state-forming nation.

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Why Putin Needs a “Nationwide Vote”

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16 June 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

Before the COVID-19 pandemic swept across Russia, the Kremlin was planning to hold a referendum on constitutional reforms that would allow Vladimir Putin to stay in power until 2036. The vote will now take place in late June. The move signals that Putin remains invested in the legitimacy of popular approval, and the best possible outcome of the vote is likely to be produced now.