On September 22, the Helsinki Commission of the United States held a briefing on the upcoming elections in Russia. Russian experts shared their views on the procedural side of the elections, their possible outcomes and their importance for the United States and Russia.
Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow, the Heritage Foundation
Among the invited experts were Leon Aron, Director of Russian Studies, the American Enterprise Institute; Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies, the Heritage Foundation; and Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Member of Solidarity, the federal political council of the Russian democratic opposition movement.
Mark Milosch, Chief of Staff at the Helsinki Commission, and Kyle Parker, Policy Advisor on Eurasia, opened the briefing by noting their concerns about violations that occurred during the Parliamentary and Presidential pre-election campaigns.
Leon Aron started his speech by saying that the outcomes of the elections in Russia are predetermined: “In today’s Russia there is only one voter, and it is Vladimir Putin,” he said. “The chances that he will vote for any other candidate are dismal.”
However, regardless of the predetermination of the results, the elections should be closely monitored because the economic, political and social contexts are different from those of the three previous election cycles. While supporting the authoritarian regime, the Russian authorities are, however, trying to appear legitimate. At the present time, popular support for Putin has weakened, largely due to the stagnating economic situation in the country. Aron also noted that manipulation of the elections might have unpredictable results, as Russian civil society has already developed to the extent that citizens are not afraid to speak up about their rights.
In his speech, Ariel Cohen analyzed the Russian political parties. He described United Russia as a Communist Party that does not comply with any democratic or liberal norms. The election campaign has already been marked by violations. For example, nine parties were prohibited from participating in the elections. Cohen declared that only those parties that are under the full control of the Kremlin have a right to exist. Cohen also highlighted the lack of rule of law in Russia, which is evident from such cases as the arrests of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Platon Lebedev and Sergey Magnitsky.
During the briefing, Vladimir Kara-Murza presented the viewpoint of the Russian opposition. He spoke about the rise of Russia’s non-democratic regime, which commenced with the gradual elimination of independent media and the arrest of regime opponents. Today the Kremlin enjoys a monopoly on power. Moreover, as Vladimir Kara-Murza noted, Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin's chief ideologist, encourages the Nashi youth movement to use violence against the opposition. Kara-Murza concluded his speech by saying that the U.S. and the EU can help Russia by passing the Magnitsky Act.
When asked by the audience what the observers should look for during and after the elections, three experts agreed that it is necessary to watch any signs of discontent in the regions and the capital. Also, all three stressed the importance of the growing popularity of the Internet among the Russian population, where people still enjoy free access to information about corruption and violations of human right by the state.
