The most important question in Russian politics was finally answered at Saturday’s party session of United Russia. Current President Dmitry Medvedev announced that he is stepping down to make way for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Russia’s No. 1 politician for the last ten years, to return to the office of the presidency in 2012.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (L) and President Dmitry Medvedev (R) are about to swap jobs.
While expected, the news triggered a wave of sharp commentary in non-state media outlets and across the Internet. Many political analysts see Mr. Putin’s comeback as a disappointment, even a worst-case scenario for Russia.
Here is a selection of comments on the subject.
Andrei Piontkovsky, director of Center for Strategic Studies:
“Nothing unexpected has happened. Putin has in fact announced that he is a life-time head of state. Medvedev’s term was a liberal illusion. Now the illusions are gone. Starting from now, two types of mood will be dominating in the country. The elites’ mood will change first – they will struggle. The second option is mass emigration of businessmen and young professionals. Time will show which trend is to prevail.”
Aleksei Malashenko, member of scientific council of Carnegie Center in Moscow:
“Everything was coming to this, though some opportunities to speculate had been left out. Now it’s finally clear that our political life is a morass. The U.S.A. and Europe have been orienting to Putin for a long time. The most interesting part now — the only unresolved question — is who will become a prime minister. One can’t be 100% sure that the solution with Medvedev is final.”
Pavel Ivlev, executive director of Institute of Modern Russia:
“What has happened is exactly what was expected. Putin just couldn’t help it. The man, who is guilty of mass-murders of his own fellow-citizens (Chechnya, bombing of residential buildings in 1999, ‘Nord-Ost’, Beslan) and of creating the “vertical of corruption" that enriched his clan — this man can’t help that he's incapable of leaving the power, and handing the control to anyone else. Meanwhile, percentage of dissatisfied people is growing steadily. Putin’s governmental regime is inefficient. Propaganda is the only thing he actually is good at. But no matter how much lipstick you put on a pig, it's still a dirty animal. The situation is like that well-known scenario – “the upper classes can not, those at the bottom do not want to.” Time is approaching when quantity will be transformed into quality. One can only hope it won’t be bloody.”
Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Institute of Globalization Issues:
“Mr. Medvedev had exhibited a degree of independence; and, if elected to a second term, could have tried to become a real president and not a technical one. I know that Putin and Medvedev had to clarify their agreement several times and that at times these conversations were difficult. There were moments where there was absolutely a sense that Medvedev spat on this agreement and tried to play his own game. But in the end he turned out to be weak.”
Gleb Pavlovsky, director of the Effective Politics Foundation:
“It’s a blow to the prestige of the presidency. It’s not political, it’s humiliating for Russia. They launch a self-liquidation of the former system.”
Aleksei Makarkin, first vice president of the Center for Political Technologies:“
The suggestion to run for president of Russia in 2012 is the decision and the desire of current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. He thinks that he can handle the situation in the country and in the world. Medvedev’s political reforms – governors’ elections and the notification principle of parties’ registration – will be postponed for long. Putin will be careful in going the length of political reforms.”
Ludmila Alekseeva, head of Helsinki Group in Moscow:
“I don’t think [Putin] will tighten the screws; he will make some changes little by little. The economic situation will dictate the need for liberal shifts. As the economists say, we’ll run out of money in 2013-2014 as the oil prices drop. I don’t think Khodorkovsky will be released right after the elections. But around 2013-2014 it might happen. This gesture might be positively perceived in Europe and in the U.S.”
Igor Yurgens, head of the Institute for Contemporary Development:
“The fact that they have chosen the risky path of Putin returning as president is their choice. But everything [the think-tank] has written is going to happen. Without political liberalisation there will be a collapse.”
Leaders of political opposition also had their say.
Boris Nemtsov, co-founder of the “Solidarity” opposition movement :
“This the worst scenario that could have happened: capital flight, collapse of the state, xenophobic conflicts. Putin is a pure provocateur, he pushes Russian people to revolt.”
Mikhail Kasyanov, leader of the Russian People’s Democratic Union:
“No doubt it has been a predictable outcome since Putin introduced Medvedev [for presidency]. Now the senior aide introduced his boss. They chose the toughest and the most uncomfortable scenario for the country, — the collapse, on the other hand, will be faster. Next year, or maybe a year after that.”
