Institute of Modern Russia

Hearing: The United States, the Russian Federation and the Challenges Ahead 

Witnesses:

General Philip M. Breedlove, USAF (Ret), Distinguished Professor, Sam Nunn School, Georgia Institute of Technology; Board Director, Atlantic Council; Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Former Commander, U.S. European Command 

Ms. Julianne Smith, Senior Fellow and Director, Strategy and Statecraft Program, Center for New American Strategy

 

Introductory remarks

Senator Bob Corker (Committee Chairman, R-TN):

• Russia’s military is the second strongest in the world in all areas except for nuclear weapons, next to the United States.
• Russia has acted as a destabilizing force on the United Nations Security Council.
• Russia has violated international law by pursuing development of cruise missiles that violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
• By intervening in Syria, Russia has contributed to the refugee crisis that has gripped Europe.
• Vladimir Kara-Murza’s poisoning, as well as Alexander Navalny’s recent conviction, stand as testaments to the dangers that Russians face when speaking out against the increasingly autocratic Putin regime.

Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD):

• Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum by invading eastern Ukraine.
• Russia is complicit in war crimes committed by the Assad regime.
• Russian hacking in the U.S. election could also happen in upcoming European elections.

 

Witness Testimonies

General Breedlove:

• Russia's buzzing of Western military presents a major security issue.
• Once NATO and the U.S. resolve this issue, they can then discuss other matters with the Russian government, such as nuclear disarmament and joint operations against ISIS.
• Moscow’s main priority in Syria is to buttress the Assad regime, and it has been killing civilians indiscriminately in the process.
• Russia’s overarching goal is to weaken NATO, the EU, and transatlantic relations.
• If Russia proves successful in Ukraine, it might attack the Baltics next, where ethnic Russians comprise large portions of the local populations.
• NATO needs to bolster its presence on the eastern front.
• Trump should meet with America’s NATO allies before he meets with Putin.
• Sanctions should be seen as a test for the Kremlin; if they are withdrawn without Moscow complying with the Minsk Agreements, that's a major issue.

Julianne Smith:

• Russia aims to undermine democratic institutions, divide NATO and the EU, and gain influence on the world stage.
• Russia is aiming diplomatic, military, economic, and intelligence efforts against the United States.
• Russia’s intervention in Syria totally changed the power dynamics in the country.
• Russia has been supporting right-wing nationalists in Europe to advance its own interests.
• Cyber is part of Russia’s larger strategy to wage asymmetric warfare against the West.
• Europe’s energy dependence on Russia continues to give the Kremlin the upper hand.
• At best, the Russian economy faces slow growth; at worst, it faces prolonged stagnation.
• President Trump will likely seek an entirely new relationship with Russia.
• Policy recommendations:
  • Any changes in U.S. policy should be conditional on Russian behavior;
  • The U.S. should be wary of aligning with Russia on Syria because Putin’s ultimate goal is to keep Assad in power;
  • European allies should be consulted before Trump meets with Putin;
  • Congress needs to make the investigation of election hacking a top priority;
  • Congress needs to bolster counter-cybersecurity efforts;
  • It is in the U.S. interest to defend the liberal international order, as it has done for the past 70 years.

 

Q & A:

1. Senator Ben Cardin: How can the U.S. demonstrate strength against Russia?

Breedlove:

• Don’t reward bad behavior, and don’t let bad behavior go unaddressed;
• U.S. should consider supplying weapons to the Ukrainians;
• Russia constantly tests other nations with “war by other means” to gauge potential reactions to aggression.

 

2. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): Is it possible to discuss policy toward Russia separately from the issues of Syria, cyber warfare, etc.?

Breedlove:

• There are subareas that we can look at for cooperation with Russia in the future, but they do not currently exist:
• Russia has a hierarchy of priorities in Syria, and fighting terrorism is at the bottom of its list;
• Propping up Assad and raising Russia to great power status are the Kremlin’s higher priorities. 

 

3. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH): Should the U.S. be doing more to defend against Russian cyber attacks?

Smith:

• Yes, the U.S. needs to invest more in detection, deterrence, and defense in the cyber realm; it also needs to utilize more private sector cyber expertise.

 

4. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): What should our sanctions policy be moving forward?

Smith:

• The U.S. should re-impose sanctions, and even intensify them; the government needs to discuss the election hacking issue much more publicly.

 

5. Senator Todd Young (R-IN): In terms of military posture, what do you recommend, and where should new forces be placed?

Breedlove:

• The West should pursue increased “forward defense”—the prepositioning of weaponry and other equipment to reduce reaction time in the event of Russian aggression. 

 

6. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ): Would it be wrong to remove sanctions unless Russia begins to act in accordance with the international order?

Smith:

• Yes, the sanctions are in place for a reason, and sanctions should not be removed unless Russia changes its behavior in Ukraine.

 

7. Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO): What are the steps the U.S. needs to take to combat Russia’s cyberwar tactics?

Smith:

• NATO needs to equip itself for cyber warfare and figure out whether a cyberattack warrants an Article 5 response.

 

8. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): Russia’s foreign policy is defined by its domestic issues. How can the idea of a “grand bargain” with Putin’s Russia be justified in the light of his repressive and aggressive policies? Is it a fantasy?

Breedlove:

• It’s a yes or no question (implies yes — ed.)

Smith:

• Agreed. Putin may say that Russia is combating ISIL in Syria, but we know it’s not true.
• The list of things we can give Russia is huge, starting with lifting sanctions; and the list of things that Russia can bring us is a big fat zero.
• Putin is leading a declined power; he is at threat, and that’s why he’s creating a Russia-as-victim narrative.
• Knowing the situation at home is important to understand Putin’s calculus.

 

9. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT): How can the U.S. reassure its European allies?

Breedlove:

• We should bolster military operations in Europe, and also encourage Europe to seek energy independence from Moscow.

Smith:

• Europe wants military reassurance, but investing in institutions, communications, and cyber defense should also be a large part of the West’s toolkit.

 

You can watch the full video of the hearing below.