Pension reform continues to concern Russian people and experts the most, with about 90 percent of Russians disapproving and Vladimir Putin’s rating falling to its pre-Crimea level. Another development is the update of the presidential envoys system, which experts see as a devaluation of this bureaucratic institute. Finally, with OPEC-plus agreeing to increase oil production, Russia may rip some significant benefits from the new deal.
This week, Russian people learned that the imminent pension reform—one of the most sensitive but necessary social reforms in the country—is finally upon them. Two other important stories to watch: preparations for the summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which may take place in July in Vienna, and the potential elevation of the role of the State Council as Putin’s power platform for the post-2024 period.
On June 15, the U.S. Helsinki Commission held a hearing on the Trump administration's policy toward Russia, addressing the dissonance between its rhetoric versus the actual policy. The panelists, including Herman Pirchner, Jr., Alina Polyakova, and Yulia Latynina, highlighted some of the most polarizing issues of both U.S. and Russian foreign policy—sanctions, hybrid warfare, and cybersecurity.
On June 14, 2018, IMR and CSIS held a panel discussion on the current downward spiral in tensions between Moscow and Washington. Participants in the discussion included former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev, Vice Chairman of Open Russia Vladimir Kara-Murza, Russian political strategist Vitali Shkliarov, and Free Russia Foundation president Natalia Arno. Senior Adviser and Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at CSIS Olga Oliker moderated the discussion.
This week, lots of attention in the Russian media was paid to the FIFA World Cup, which opened in Moscow on June 14. In the meantime, Vladimir Putin appointed his new administration, keeping most of its former employees, with a few curious exceptions. Finally, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned a small group of Russian entities for conducting cyber operations, but the effects of these measures are yet to be seen.
This week, Vladimir Putin held his annual “Direct Line” with the Russian people asserting for the 16th time his power and the “correctness” of his policies. The composition of the new Russian government was a topic of expert discussions in the light of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s sagging rating. Meanwhile, the country is about to kick off a major international event—the FIFA World Cup, whose sole goal (pardon the pun) may be to improve Russia’s global image.
The shocking news about the staged murder of journalist Arkady Babchenko made headlines in both Russian and international media where opinions were polarized as usual. This news cycle overshadowed other important developments in Russia, such as the St. Petersburg Economic Forum with Putin trying to exploit current transatlantic rifts, and the purges in the regional elite that set the stage for his fourth presidential term.
One of the key discussions in Russia this week concerned the new Cabinet that officially started working on May 18. Despite many familiar faces, there are still new signals for the experts to decipher. Another discussion focused on the meaning of Putin’s ambitious May decrees and whether they could be implemented at all. Finally, the situation surrounding the resignation of Yekaterinburg mayor Yevgeny Roizman composed the third significant element of the political discourse this week.
While the Russian state media relished Vladimir Putin’s photo-ops at the opening of the Crimea bridge, other developments were less hyped but more consequential to the country this week. First, Dmitry Medvedev’s Cabinet was approved, with most positions filled with the same people. Second, the Duma steamrolled the passage of the counter-sanctions bill to target not just the U.S. but also Russian citizens. Third, the recent oil prices fluctuations revealed a weaker correlation with the ruble exchange rate.
This week has seen three crucial developments that highlighted long-term trends in Russian politics. On May 5, anti-Putin protests took place across the country, resulting in 1600 detainees. On May 7, Putin was inaugurated for his fourth term as Russia’s president and immediately reappointed Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister, thus ending weeks of speculation regarding a possible liberal shift. On May 9, Russia celebrated Victory Day, but it seems that after the holiday was highly politicized, it eventually started to lose its appeal.
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