On September 17, the Institute of Modern Russia and the Atlantic Council will co-host the presentation of a new report titled “An Invasion by Any Other Name: Russia’s Dirty War in Ukraine,” prepared by the editorial team of The Interpreter, an IMR special project. The report offers evidence proving that Russia is behind the unrest in the Donbass region in Ukraine’s east.
In part one of this two-part story, IMR analyst Ezekiel Pfeifer examined how the Russian pension system managed to build up annual deficits of more than $50 billion. In part two, he attempts to answer the eternal Russian question in relation to this massive problem: What is to be done?
According to current projections, Russia’s pension system faces annual deficits of more than $50 billion in the coming years, while the number of retirees is on the rise. The government has tinkered with the system in an attempt to fill the gap, but some experts insist that the changes have only made things worse. In part one of a two-part story, IMR analyst Ezekiel Pfeifer examines the origins of the pension system’s acute and chronic ailments.
As Vladimir Putin heads to Beijing this week to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, investors and officials in both countries are preoccupied with the nations’ mounting economic woes. For Russia, the Chinese slowdown is particularly vexing, since it puts up a potential roadblock to the Kremlin’s “pivot” to the east. Independent researcher Cyrus Newlin and IMR analyst Ezekiel Pfeifer examine the shifting landscape and attempt to determine whether Russia can count on China to drive its economy forward.
Amid Russia’s drive to modernize its military hardware, another problem with its armed forces has been subjected to less scrutiny: a shortage of willing soldiers, Elisabeth Braw writes in Foreign Affairs. Also this week, Tom Balmforth of RFE/RL writes about the obstacles facing investigators who are probing the killing of Boris Nemtsov.
On August 17, Moscow’s Tagansky District Court initiated proceedings on the so-called “roofers’ case”: Last year, roofer Pavel Ushivets scaled the golden pinnacle of a Stalin-era skyscraper and painted half of it blue to resemble Ukraine’s national colors, then planted a Ukrainian flag on its spire. Instead of arresting the roofer, though, police arrested four base-jumpers who happened to climb the building that same day. According to writer Alexander Podrabinek, the vandalism case initiated against the base-jumpers is ridiculous both in form and in content, and the accused are essentially being held hostage.
The Kremlin’s aggressive tactics in Ukraine have caused experts and Western military leaders to sound the alarm over the threat Russia poses toward the NATO member states in the Baltic region. But would Russia’s military have the upper hand in a Baltic conflict with the West? Journalist and military analyst Matthew Bodner breaks down the two sides’ assets and determines that Russia would face a tall task in confronting NATO.
In July, one of the most talked-about events in Russia was the Constitutional Court’s ruling that Russia may deviate from compliance with decisions of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). However, as IMR legal expert Ekaterina Mishina notes, this decision should come as no surprise. Rather, it is the natural extension of a widely held attitude in political circles, according to which Russia can afford not to comply with judgments of the Strasbourg Court if it doesn’t like them.
This week, the Economist examined the highly politicized criminal trials taking place in Russia, including those of Ukrainian pilot Nadia Savchenko and Estonian security officer Eston Kohver. Also, Leonid Bershidsky of Bloomberg View broke down the significance of Vladimir Yakunin’s dismissal from Russian Railways, while Julia Ioffe wrote in Foreign Policy about the Kremlin’s clumsy policy of destroying contraband food.
Despite the conventional view that Russia’s economy will rebound when the price of oil swings upward, experts agree that what it really needs is an influx of capital investment. As IMR analyst Ezekiel Pfeifer writes, the Kremlin is attempting to stimulate investment by taking the risky step of allowing people’s wages to decline. The question is: Will the gambit work?
Our newsletter delivers a digest of analytical articles and op-eds published on our website, along with the latest updates on the IMR activities on a monthly basis.