Institute of Modern Russia

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Why negotiations on Donbass failed

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22 April 2021

Andrei Piontkovsky

On April 16-20, another attempt was made to resolve the military conflict in eastern Ukraine. France, Germany, and Ukraine (Trilateral Contact Group) convened for consultations, with Russia joining the talks (“Normandy format”). Once again, the negotiations ended in stalemate, as the parties failed to agree on measures to reduce escalation on the contact line in Donbass. Against this backdrop, the fact that Vladimir Putin didn’t even mention Ukraine in his recent address to the Federal Assembly is alarming.

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Escalation in Donbass: cold war or hot peace?

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20 April 2021

Mykola Vorobiov

Tensions are growing again at the Ukraine-Russia border and in the zone of armed conflict in the Donbass. According to some estimates, about 110,000 Russian troops could be pulled to the border as part of Russia’s “symmetrical response” to the largest NATO exercises in years. Some observers expect further escalation, even a Russian invasion. While the Kremlin’s saber-rattling is likely to test the new Biden administration, which has recently declared its support for Ukraine, the risk of a Russian “big war” with Ukraine is quite real.

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Putin’s dangerous flirting with nationalism

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16 April 2021

Dmitry Shlapentokh

Russian nationalism has deeps roots and manifests itself through various political brands—often with anti-government undertones. As nationalist sentiment gained momentum in the early 2000s, Vladimir Putin, a cautious and calculating politician, decided to adopt the trappings of the nationalist agenda without actually following through with relevant policies. So far, it has worked in undermining his opposition, but, as history has shown, by playing with a nationalistic and bellicose rhetoric, Putin risks losing the game, which could then follow its own logic with unpredictable results.

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A Single Year of Voting

How the electoral season is shaping up in Russia’s regions

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06 April 2021

András Tóth-Czifra

United Russia’s electoral rating has sunk to levels unseen since 2011, forecasting a difficult electoral season for the Kremlin. But unlike ten years ago when Moscow was front and center of political theater, regions will likely play a significant role in determining the mood before and after the vote. Two recent events in regional politics contain lessons for the authorities and the opposition as well.

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Levada Center polls offer a bird’s-eye view of what Russians think right now

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02 April 2021

Liya Wizevich

Following a series of high-profile political events in Russia—Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia, his imprisonment, and unprecedented protests in his support—IMR prepared a brief overview of the Levada Center’s latest public opinion polls. Despite the brutality of the regime’s crackdown on the dissent, the polls show that little seems to have changed for Putin and the Kremlin. A new survey of Russians’ and Americans’ views of each other also reveals gaps in self-perception and narrow areas of possible cooperation.

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The tightrope walk of Russian-Israeli relations

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01 April 2021

Vera Michlin-Shapir

Russia’s productive relationship with Israel remains one of the pillars of the Middle East security architecture. The two countries manage to compartmentalize their differences and cooperate on issues of mutual interest. But this fine balancing act is now facing challenges from the new U.S. administration’s foreign policy lines and Israel’s domestic political volatility.

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How Russian courts create their own reality

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31 March 2021

Igor Slabykh*

The majority of Russians do not trust the courts, according to the polls—and rightly so. A number of factors contribute to the country’s legal troubles, including a low ethical and professional level of judges, dependence on the executive power, inquisitorial practices in criminal proceedings. The already poor state of affairs has worsened in recent years, as judges turned to forging facts and creating their own reality that defies logic and common sense.

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Opinions

“Mariupol Crisis”

How Ukraine Became a Key Factor in U.S.-Russian Relations

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24 March 2021

Olga Khvostunova

In recent weeks, the Biden administration has drawn a tough line with Moscow. In an interview with IMR, political commentator Andrei Piontkovsky dissects the state of U.S-Russian relations, the Western sanctions, and the growing crisis in Ukraine.

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What role will Ukraine play in Russia’s relations with the Biden administration?

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12 March 2021

Mykola Vorobiov

Standing up for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity was recently named by Joe Biden as a “vital concern” for the West. Kiev has also shown eagerness for closer cooperation with the United States by taking a tougher stance on Russia. Against this backdrop, Moscow might look to raise the political stakes, using Ukraine as a staging ground for confrontation with the West.

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“Zeroing-out” Anniversary

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10 March 2021

Ekaterina Mishina

On March 10, 2020, during the second reading of the draft law on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, first-woman-in-space-turned-deputy Valentina Tereshkova put forward a surprise proposal—to reset, or “zero out,” the number of presidential terms for Vladimir Putin. The ensuing political theater once again confirmed that some candidates for the presidency are always more equal than others.