On November 29, Natalia Gorbanevskaya—poet, translator, human rights activist and participant of the 1968 Red Square demonstration—died in Paris. She died in her sleep. She was 77.
The participation of Russian opposition politician Vladimir Ryzhkov in a recent Kremlin meeting with Vladimir Putin has reignited the debate about whether it is acceptable for the democratic opposition to engage with the leader of an authoritarian regime. Author and human rights activist Alexander Podrabinek contends that such rituals only benefit the authorities.
Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin gave the police and security forces an opportunity to take revenge for their losses during Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency. Practically all of the initiatives of the former Russian president and current prime minister have been revised—a state of affairs that Medvedev has usually taken lying down. However, in November, for the first time in eighteen months, Medvedev decided to publicly criticize a bill introduced to the State Duma by Putin. In response, the president as good as threatened the head of the Russian government with dismissal. According to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, Russian business is being put at the mercy of the security forces.
The leaders of Russia’s opposition are increasingly beholden to the “theory of small deeds,” trying to improve certain aspects of the political and social life. Author and human rights activist Alexander Podrabinek contends that the opposition should aim to dismantle, not improve Russia’s current regime.
During the 2011–2012 electoral cycle, Russia saw unprecedented mass protests by representatives of the country’s growing middle class calling for more democracy and less corruption. Political scientists point to the unraveling of an unspoken “social contract” between Vladimir Putin and Russian society. In this study, Sasha de Vogel, managing editor of the Journal of Globalization and Development, analyzes the causes and nature of the Russian middle class’ protest.
At the end of October, Kremlin Chief-of-Staff Sergei Ivanov and his deputy Vyacheslav Volodin attended a meeting of municipal mayors from the Moscow region and indicated that they wanted their audience to be more responsive to voters’ needs and more open to the involvement of civil society. Donald N. Jensen, Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, contends that there is no sign that the Kremlin will permit anything that threatens the president’s power or fundamentally alters Russian politics.
In late October, Gazprom demanded that Ukraine pay its nearly $1 billion debt for gas delivered to Ukraine since August 1st. Russia is likely to increase pressure on Ukraine, leaving open the possibility of a new “gas war,” if Kiev continues moving toward European integration. Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaia argues that Moscow is returning to its former “arm-twisting” tactics to keep Ukraine within its zone of influence.
Petty pride and the fear of looking weak are two of the many qualities that differentiate fearful dictatorships from self-confident democracies. Strong political systems feel no need to be constantly proving their power, whereas weak ones are driven by an inferiority complex. Russia is not yet a dictatorship, but judging by the regime’s excessive reactions to pinpricks, it is already exhibiting some of the psychological characteristics of one. Author and publicist Alexander Podrabinek discusses the seizure of the Greenpeace International ship Arctic Sunrise with thirty people on board.
The Institute of Modern Russia continues its series of articles by Alexander Yanov on the history of Russian nationalism. In this installment, the author explores the reason for the 1917 Revolution and concludes that the Bolsheviks did not win the battle for power; rather, the Provisional Government lost by rejecting an alternative to Bolshevism and thereby missing its opportunity to exclude Bolshevism from the game.
In October, the Russian Historical Society has approved new guidelines for history textbooks that will be used in Russian schools after 2015. The guidelines were drawn up at the request of Vladimir Putin. IMR Senior Policy Advisor Vladimir Kara-Murza—a historian by training—analyzed the blueprint, noting its positive and negative aspects.
Our newsletter delivers a digest of analytical articles and op-eds published on our website, along with the latest updates on the IMR activities on a monthly basis.