Economy - Institute of Modern Russia

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The End of the Line for South Stream

Details: Economics

The End of the Line for South Stream

Details: 16 December 2014; Donald N. Jensen

On December 1, during his state visit to Turkey, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would cancel the construction of the ambitious South Stream pipeline. According to Donald Jensen, resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, this decision does not mean an end to Moscow’s search for ways to transport natural gas to Europe while bypassing Ukraine.

Five Major Risks for Russia

Details: Economics

Five Major Risks for Russia

Details: 20 October 2014; Tatiana Stanovaya

In October 2014, the Russian economy set a number of negative records. The ruble’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar for the first time exceeded 40 and reached 52 against the euro, which forced the Central Bank to spend several billion dollars on intervention. Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya analyzes the key risks currently facing Russia’s economy.

The Third Gas War

Details: Economics

The Third Gas War

Details: 01 July 2014; Tatiana Stanovaya and Olga Khvostunova

The Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict that started in April has recently entered a critical phase. On June 16, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom halted transportation of gas to Ukraine, demanding that Ukraine pay its debt of almost $2 billion. And last Friday, Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller threatened to take measures against European companies that participate in reverse gas supplies to Ukraine. IMR analysts Tatiana Stanovaya and Olga Khvostunova analyze the specifics of the latest gas war.

Will the South Stream Be Frozen?

Details: Economics

Will the South Stream Be Frozen?

Details: 28 June 2014; Tatiana Stanovaya and Olga Khvostunova

The crisis in Ukraine has exacerbated many problematic aspects of the relationship between Russia and the European Union. In June, the South Stream, one of Gazprom’s most ambitious geopolitical projects, took center stage in this standoff. IMR analysts Tatiana Stanovaya and Olga Khvostunova comment on the latest conflict.

A New “Gas War”

Details: Economics

A New “Gas War”

Details: 13 November 2013; Tatiana Stanovaya

In late October, Gazprom demanded that Ukraine pay its nearly $1 billion debt for gas delivered to Ukraine since August 1st. Russia is likely to increase pressure on Ukraine, leaving open the possibility of a new “gas war,” if Kiev continues moving toward European integration. Political analyst Tatyana Stanovaia argues that Moscow is returning to its former “arm-twisting” tactics to keep Ukraine within its zone of influence.

Why Russia Doesn’t Need High Oil Prices

Details: Economics

Why Russia Doesn’t Need High Oil Prices

Details: 15 October 2013; Olga Khvostunova

Oil price fluctuations that exceed $100 per barrel create comfortable conditions for Russia’s economy, as its budget is balanced at around $90 per barrel. Further escalation of the situation in the Middle East could bring oil prices up, seemingly playing into the Russian government’s hands. But according to IMR Advisor Olga Khvostunova, high oil prices will not help the country’s sagging economy.

Rosneft vs. Gazprom

Details: Economics

Rosneft vs. Gazprom

Details: 29 August 2013; Olga Khvostunova

In September, the Russian State Duma will review legislation that aims to liberalize liquefied natural gas exports, a move that would end Gazprom's long-standing monopoly in the field. One of the companies that have lobbied for this strategic move is Rosneft, which has been actively expanding into the gas sector. IMR Advisor Olga Khvostunova analyzes the recent shifts in the energy market and their consequences for Gazprom.

Putinomics: Who Will Pay for the Deficit?

Details: Economics

Putinomics: Who Will Pay for the Deficit?

Details: 29 August 2013; Tatiana Stanovaya

Oil prices remain high, but Russia’s budget deficit is growing. In July, the Finance Ministry increased its budget deficit projections for 2014 from 0.4 percent to 0.5 percent. According to representatives from the Economic Development Ministry, GDP growth “looks like zero.” Under these circumstances, two developments in particular stand out: the possible abandoning of a program for boosting the country’s birth rate; and increasing allocations of sovereign funds toward the implementation of megaprojects. Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya discusses how Putin’s regime can survive the deficit.

Russia's Murky Angola Debt Deal

Details: Economics

Russia's Murky Angola Debt Deal

Details: 20 August 2013; Boris Bruk

The circumstances surrounding the repayment of Angola’s debt to Russia—which has been called one of the biggest corruption schemes of the recent years—still offer more questions than answers. At least two prominent businessmen from the former Soviet Union were involved in this deal: Arcadi Gaydamak and Vitaly Malkin. IMR Advisor Boris Bruk has examined the details of the Angola debt deal.

The Kremlin Tries to Roll Back the “Shale Revolution”

Details: Economics

The Kremlin Tries to Roll Back the “Shale Revolution”

Details: 01 August 2013; Donald N. Jensen

The much-discussed “shale revolution” threatens to weaken Russia’s regime, which has grown dependent on traditional energy exports. Donald N. Jensen, Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, suggests that the Kremlin has finally noticed this phenomenon—but has so far done little to prepare for it.

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