Last week, in a special address to the IHS CERAWeek Conference in Houston, Texas, Igor Sechin, the president of the Rosneft oil company, majority-owned by the Russian state, unveiled the company’s international strategy, including the development of an oilfield in the Vankor region of Eastern Siberia, which he described as “the largest new oil development project in post-Soviet Russia.” In response to Sechin’s address, IMR President Pavel Khodorkovsky issued the following statement.
Global energy analysts are revising their forecasts for the coming decade. Industrialization in developing countries, followed by a serious recession, a “shale gas revolution” in the U.S., the development of new production technologies, and the emergence of new market players have all led to a shift in the balance of forces. IMR’s Olga Khvostunova spoke to Professor Leonid Grigoriev, advisor to the director of the Russian Energy Agency, about the current situation and its implications for the Russian oil and gas market.
The "shale gas revolution" in the United States is changing the world’s energy map. The International Energy Agency’s latest predictions suggest that by 2035 America will have become the world’s largest gas producer, outpacing Russia. Until recently, Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas monopoly, has been skeptical about such forecasts. As IMR Analyst Olga Khvostunova points out, Gazprom’s lack of long-term vision can have negative implications both for the company and for the country.
Russia’s state capitalism reached a new high when Rosneft became the world’s largest publicly traded oil producer after its acquisition of TNK-BP. This new landscape is the result of the “national champions” strategy that was the heart of Vladimir Putin’s economic policy during his thirteen years in power. According to IMR economic advisor Igor Booth, the story of Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas producer, provides good insight into the future of Rosneft and the Russian economy as a whole.
In September, the Russian government started to actively discuss the country's 2013 draft budget. The key issue is how to reduce the gap between the state's social responsibilities and its financial resources. On the eve of the new political season IMR's Olga Khvostunova spoke with Sergei Guriev, President of the New Economic School, about the government's future economic policies and their impact on the country's political development.
During the recent Asian Pacific Ocean Economic (APEC) summit, Russia marketed natural gas pipelines to Asia and the railway route from Asia to Europe. However, one may reasonably doubt the ability of Russian monopolies to execute such ambitious projects. Recent news about Russian Railways reveals a deep crisis within the company, while Gazprom’s high current profits mask the collapse of its long-term strategy. According to IMR economic advisor, Igor Booth, these two Russian giants, in order to reach their full potential, need to adopt best change management practices and, in particular, study the Russian electric power sector’s experience of reform.
A popular belief among the political observers skeptical of Russia’s stability is that if oil prices fall below 60 USD per barrel and remain there for more than a year, Putin’s regime will fall. However, IMR's economic advisor Igor Booth argues that the Russian government has a significant arsenal for fighting the potential economic crisis, no matter how serious it becomes. Only a small number of critical mistakes in economic policy could destabilize the country sufficiently to force the regime out of power.
Although this June’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was intended to make Russia more attractive to foreign investors, it instead revealed that promises from Russian officials no longer hold water in the international business community. According to independent economic analyst Igor Booth, in order to successfully promote investment growth, Russia needs to better adapt to the post-crisis economic climate.
Dependence on oil exportation is one of the most controversial issues in Russian economics. In the course of many discussions, natural resources go from being considered a boon to being seen as a burden. However, as an independent financial analyst Igor Booth argues, the decelerated growth of the oil industry poses a much bigger threat than the Russian economy’s distorted structure. The economy will only grow if the state policies regulating the energy sector are overhauled and public perceptions of the "oil curse" are overcome.
The Russian establishment was holding its collective breath in anticipation of May 22nd, when they were to find out what post Igor Sechin, Russia’s powerful Deputy Prime Minister, the ideologue behind the Yukos affair, and Vladimir Putin’s former KGB colleague, would occupy in Putin’s new Kremlin. IMR's Caterina Innocente describes Sechin's great strides toward fulfilling his dream of leading an international business empire.
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