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Escalation in Donbass: cold war or hot peace?

Details: 20 April 2021; Mykola Vorobiov

Tensions are growing again at the Ukraine-Russia border and in the zone of armed conflict in the Donbass. According to some estimates, about 110,000 Russian troops could be pulled to the border as part of Russia’s “symmetrical response” to the largest NATO exercises in years. Some observers expect further escalation, even a Russian invasion. While the Kremlin’s saber-rattling is likely to test the new Biden administration, which has recently declared its support for Ukraine, the risk of a Russian “big war” with Ukraine is quite real.

Details: Analysis

Putin’s dangerous flirting with nationalism

Details: 16 April 2021; Dmitry Shlapentokh

Russian nationalism has deeps roots and manifests itself through various political brands—often with anti-government undertones. As nationalist sentiment gained momentum in the early 2000s, Vladimir Putin, a cautious and calculating politician, decided to adopt the trappings of the nationalist agenda without actually following through with relevant policies. So far, it has worked in undermining his opposition, but, as history has shown, by playing with a nationalistic and bellicose rhetoric, Putin risks losing the game, which could then follow its own logic with unpredictable results.

Details: Analysis

A Single Year of Voting

How the electoral season is shaping up in Russia’s regions

Details: 06 April 2021; András Tóth-Czifra

United Russia’s electoral rating has sunk to levels unseen since 2011, forecasting a difficult electoral season for the Kremlin. But unlike ten years ago when Moscow was front and center of political theater, regions will likely play a significant role in determining the mood before and after the vote. Two recent events in regional politics contain lessons for the authorities and the opposition as well.

Details: Human Rights

March 2021: Navalny, Open Russia, Perpetual Protest

Details: 06 April 2021; Diana Fishman

In March, Russian authorities continued to purge the political space—a process triggered by Alexei Navalny’s activities, a surge in protest movement, and the start of the September election campaign. Navalny himself is facing serious health problems and harsh treatment from the colony administration. Pressure is growing on members of his team, as well as independent municipal deputies, whose forum in Moscow was dispersed by the police. The persecution continues of Perpetual Protest participants, who stand accused of vandalism against the Prosecutor General’s Office building.

Details: Analysis

Levada Center polls offer a bird’s-eye view of what Russians think right now

Details: 02 April 2021; Liya Wizevich

Following a series of high-profile political events in Russia—Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia, his imprisonment, and unprecedented protests in his support—IMR prepared a brief overview of the Levada Center’s latest public opinion polls. Despite the brutality of the regime’s crackdown on the dissent, the polls show that little seems to have changed for Putin and the Kremlin. A new survey of Russians’ and Americans’ views of each other also reveals gaps in self-perception and narrow areas of possible cooperation.

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