There has long been talk about the Kremlin’s plans to dissolve the current State Duma and call early parliamentary elections—not only political analysts, but Duma members themselves have been discussing this possibility. The latest developments only confirm the likelihood of such a scenario. IMR Senior Policy Advisor Vladimir Kara-Murza discusses who—the regime or the opposition—will benefit from early Duma elections.
In late March, Vladimir Putin participated in a conference held by the All-Russia People’s Front (ARPF). The ARPF’s first congress, which is supposed to take place in the near future, will finally give the “movement,” which now exists only in newspapers and on TV, a legal form. Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya discusses whether the ARPF is a prototype of a new ruling party or a parody of a political movement.
KGB General Sergei Ivanov, once considered a likely successor to Vladimir Putin, lost much of his influence after Dmitri Medvedev’s selection as president in 2008. Yet in recent weeks, Ivanov appears to have made a political comeback. Donald N. Jensen, Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, ponders whether Sergei Ivanov is being positioned to succeed Putin after all.
In the past year, Russia’s ruling party has been in constant crisis. Despite its stable poll standings, United Russia's reputation has been deteriorating, and its members are being subjected to exposés of wrongdoing by the opposition and the media. According to anonymous government sources, the elite is frightened: the Kremlin has started to "betray" its own. Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya discusses the ruling party's future in the new political environment.
While the advantages of the Western path of development over the Eastern one are evident, for many centuries Russia has been unable to make a definitive choice. According to author and analyst Alexander Podrabinek, the Western model is the only way for the country to avoid ruin and degradation.
Boris Berezovsky was a symbol of an era in which politics and business in Russia were led by distinctive, larger-than-life personalities. Such people cannot be painted simply in black or in white. IMR Senior Policy Advisor Vladimir Kara-Murza discusses the life and the times of the late Russian oligarch.
The evolution of Putin's regime toward tougher authoritarianism, which began with the "national leader's" return to the Kremlin, will soon affect its policies toward youth. Under Vladislav Surkov, the erstwhile “éminence grise,” pro-Kremlin movements were supposed to serve as the main "anti-Orange" force on the streets. The Nashi movement, which used to be the "core" of this force, now will likely be reformed. Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya discusses the changes in the Kremlin's youth policy.
Despite their mutual aversion, the Russian government and the Russian opposition have one common trait—a tendency to oversimplify the image of their enemy for propagandistic purposes. Author and analyst Alexander Podrabinek argues that the opposition is making a grave mistake when it focuses all its efforts just on removing Vladimir Putin from power.
On March 18, Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta published an op-ed by IMR Senior Policy Advisor Vladimir Kara-Murza. The article, entitled “Patriotism and Opposition,” was written in response to the officially sanctioned smear campaign against Kremlin opponents, who are being accused of “treason.”
Despite rumors of his waning influence, Rosneft chief Igor Sechin remains one of the most powerful members of Russia’s ruling establishment. Donald N. Jensen, Resident Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, discusses Sechin’s latest “string of triumphs.”
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